I’ve dipped an editorial toe into this pool already. And couched my own predictions in all sorts of ca-veats. But Canada’s Food Guy says Trump’s policies WILL mean bad news for Canadian Food prices – and our whole Agri-Food system…
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is Canada’s top independent voice on Ag and Food issues. And as such, I accord him the final word on what the new Trump administration’s avowed policies on agriculture, food and trade will mean for Canada…
Pivotal moment
Charlebois says Trump’s return to the White House will be remembered as a ‘pivotal moment’, regard-less of the overall outcome of his ‘American First’ agenda.
“During Trump’s first administration, Canada performed reasonably well economically, even amid in-tense political rhetoric and policy shifts,” Charlebois notes, in a recent opinion piece. “Our GDP per capita grew by 6.3 per cent, a figure far more robust than the stagnant growth we’re seeing today.”
“Agri-food trade between Canada and the US also flourished, growing by almost 20 per cent from 2016 to 2020,” he continues. “Despite the ‘America First’ focus, our food sector has benefited from stronger cross-border trade — a trend that may continue, though with potentially higher stakes.”
But the professor stresses that the new Trump regime’s much stronger protectionist stand will mean bad news for Canada. It’s just a matter of how bad? And how soon?
Canada at a disadvantage
Since 2019, Canada’s wholesale food prices have increased almost 40 per cent more than in the US, putting Canadian producers at a disadvantage, Charlebois notes. A second Trump administration could widen this gap further. For example, Trump’s proposed renegotiation of the North American trade agreement could mean that sensitive areas like dairy will return to the bargaining table.
And we still don’t know exactly how Trump’s blanket tariffs plan will affect the huge import-export trade between Canada and the US. The result could be a double-whammy: relatively lower costs for US food imports to Canada at the same time as prices for Canadian Exports to the US shoot up.
Global balance also at risk
In global trade, the stakes are equally high. Trump’s blanket tariffs threaten to upend he current in-ternational ecomonic balance of power. And Canada’s position as a ‘middle power’ may come under strain in a world more polarized between competing economic blocs such as the emerging BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) alliance.
My take
I hate to admit it, but I experienced an involuntary shiver when I first read Charlebois’ assertion that Canadian food prices have already risen 40 percent more than those in the US, just since 2019. And that the Second Coming of Trump could well ‘widen the gap’.
I’m no economist. And math has always been my weakest suit. But even I can tell, the next 4 years stand to be the toughest many Canadian farmers and other food industry players have known in living history. I’m also acutely aware that Canadian retail food prices continue high – in spite of the recent levelling-off of the rate of inflation increase.
Drastic action now ‘urgent’
Even without the impact of Trump’s America First agenda, millions of Canadians are staring starvation in the face every time they look in a mirror. Food Bank demand continues to spiral upward. Back last March, we’re told, Food Bank visits across the land surpassed 2 million per month – a dark milestone.
The real buying power of lowest-income Canadians continues to erode as wages and supports fail to keep pace with inflation. Every month, more and more Canadians drop below the poverty line. Now, it appears the situation is just going to get worse – only faster.
The time for drastic action on food prices by governments is already past. The Canadian masses are waiting – hungerly – to see what the people they elected to run their country are going to do, to save them from impending disaster…
~ Maggie J.