When they think of avocados, the vast majority of folks think ‘Guacamole’. But the bumpy-skinned fruit penetrates far deeper into the culinary sphere than that. And the world is facing an avocado apocalypse, as prices rollercoaster…
Avocado Toast is just one of the ‘other’ popular dishes on North American
menus dependant on a reliable supply of fresh, inexpensive fruit…
There are two main reasons that avocados are disappearing from restaurant menus. One is their price. It’s been shooting up to almost twice it’s usual level, then diving down without warning over the past year and half. And that’s all due to poor crop yields…
Flashback to 2024…
“In 2024, US avocado production rose by 52.9%, reaching 197,070 metric tons,” ProducePay.com re-ported last May (2025). “This marks a near recovery to the 200,000-ton peak of 2020 after three years of lower yields. Despite this improvement, domestic production is still very far from satisfying the growing demand and continues to face several structural hurdles.”
The biggest problem with the avocado supply then – and now, to a lesser extent – is that the crop failures also affected Mexico, the largest foreign source of avocados accessed by the US. In fact, Mexico normally supplies more of the product than all other exporters send to the US, at over 1,000,000 metric tonnes per year.
And at the same time… US avocado market has continued to grow steadily, driven by rising consumer demand. However, domestic avocado growers are constantly facing challenges that have affected their competitiveness
Unreliable supply riles restos
We all know that, when product shortages occur, the price goes up. And so, avocados rollercoastered in price across the US last year, hitting highs almost twice the normal cost.
And that triggered a second set of conditions that resulted in avocados being taken off many rest-aurant menus.
Resto operators have been walking a thin line since the beginning of the COVID crisis. They’ve been trying to keep avocados on their menus to please customers who have been pumped up by social media coverage and conventional advertising. But they’ve been hampered by product shortages and unpredictable costs.
Sustainability now a factor
Many restos have adopted a sustainability ethic which makes avocados personae non grata.
Even back in 2021, high-profile chefs were starting to move away from avocados to more sustainable ingredients.
“On the one hand, they are deliciously creamy, versatile and gloriously Instagrammable,” Thomasina Miers, co-founder of the Mexican restaurant chain Wahaca, told The Guardian. “On the other, they have an enormous carbon footprint for a fruit, require up to 320 litres of water each to grow and, “are in such global demand they are becoming unaffordable for people indigenous to the areas they are grown in.”
My take
It’s become clear that the avocado may not survive the challenges of the 2020s as an everyday indulgence. The occasional product shortages don’t seem to bother shoppers as much as they do supermarket operators. But the price situation does. You can’t plan to serve a big bowl of Gauc at your get-together next week because you don’t know if you’ll be able to afford it. Whether you’ll be able to get the avos at all becomes a secondary consideration.
Sure enough… When I asked the produce manager at my go-to neighbourhood supermarket recently, he confided, he’s not selling nearly as many avocados as he once did…
~ Maggie J.