We heard a lot of last year about food prices coming down this year – 2025. But Canada’s Food Guy and his team say that’s not likely. In fact, The 2025 Canada’s Food Price Report says retail food prices will rise an average of 3 to 5 percent…
I think anyone among us who does the family Food shopping regularly could see it coming a long way off. We kept hearing, over the second half of last year, that food prices were ‘stable’ and likely to start dropping this year. Turns out that prediction was over-optimistic….
‘Rate’ slowing
The truth is, the rate at which food prices are rising is slowing – as predicted by more-conservative industry watchers last year. At least that’s what Canada’s Food Guy, Dr. Sylvain Charlebois at the Agri-Food Research lab found, preparing the 2025 Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR).
The official forecast was released last week. And it’s key findings were as follows:
Food Price Forecast for 2025
| Food Categories | Anticipated Changes (%) |
| Bakery | 2% – 4% |
| Dairy | 2% – 4% |
| Fruits | 1% – 3% |
| Meat | 4% – 6% |
| Restaurants | 3% – 5% |
| Seafood | 1% – 3% |
| Vegetables | 3% – 5% |
| Other | 2% – 4% |
| Total Increase in Food Prices | 3% – 5% |
Note that Meat, Produce and Restaurant Meals once again lead the way with predicted price increases of up to 6 percent.
Increased food insecurity
The most visible – and serious – consequence of still-higher food prices will be increased food in-security. That’s a fancy way of saying more folks at the ,lower levels of the income pyramid will be scrambling to afford enough food to fill their bellies.
“Although there was a downward trend in inflation in 2024, Canadians are still pinching pennies,” the 2025 Report says. “In April, Statistics Canada reported that in 2023, 22.9 percent of people in the ten provinces lived in a food-insecure household. That means 8.7 million people, including 2.1 million children, are struggling to afford the food they need.”
Food banks failing
Canada’s food banks are the main line of defense against starvation for those billions of us at the bottom of the economic ladder. but the food banks revealed record high demand and dangerously low supply – donations – in their year-end 2024 reports. Some have had to cut the amount op0f food they provide in their aid baskets by 10 percent or more. And there’s no end in sight…
Why?
An avalanche of factors are contributing to the ongoing food crisis. The CFPR explains, “Food prices are influenced by many global factors. A few [of those] include climate change, geopolitical conflicts, input and energy costs, inflation, currencies and the trade environment, food and retail distribution, food processing, policies and regulations, consumer awareness and trends, and consumer debt and disposable income. These variables [all] play a pivotal role in shaping projected food prices in Canada.”
One really significant factor is the persistent low value of the Canadian Dollar against it’s American counterpart. Another is the accelerating rate of climate challenge. And all consequences that uncon-trolled phenomenon holds for the global food picture…
My take
The bottom line for food prices is that they will continue to rise throughout this year. In other words, it will remain just as hard, or harder, for folks at the bottom of the economic pyramid to feed them-selves adequately. And the food banks will struggle even harder to fulfill their humanitarian mission.
My questions to you:
Is it time for governments to step in and force supermarkets to sacrifice at least a portion of their continuing record profits to make sure all Canadians are able to afford an adequate diet? If so…
Should the supermarket chains be forced to subsidise shoppers directly by cutting prices? Or…
Should the government come up with subsidy systems such the food stamp and voucher systems in the US?
If you said ‘no’ to all of the above…
What SHOULD be done to ensure our neediest cousins don’t starve?
Muse on that…
~ Maggie J.