We’ve mentioned this previously, but it bears spotlighting again. US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs are hurting Americans more than they are folks in exporting countries. That’s because US con-sumers are paying for the tariffs at the checkout…
Even after dozens – maybe even hundreds – of economists and financiers have debunked Trump’s claims, that foreign manufacturers and producers are paying his infamous tariffs, many Americans apparently still believe the lie…
A definitive analysis
I came across what may be the definitive analysis of the Trump Tariffs situation looking for specific figures on how much Americans are paying on the deal. And I was shocked to find out that almost all the added costs of goods entering the US under the President’s tariffs are being passed-on to con-sumers at the cash register.
The Kiel Institute, “aims to be Europe’s preeminent research institute for global economic affairs, combining cutting-edge research on par with leading economics departments with visible and lasting policy impact on the national and international level,” according to its ‘Institute’ web page. That’s a high bar to set. But it claims to fulfill the promise. Assuming it does, the figures it has published in America’s Own Goal: Who Pays The Tariffs? should shock anyone who still believes foreign countries are footing the Tariff bill.
An ‘Own Goal’?
That’s an international soccer term describing what happens when a player puts the ball in his own net. And a point is awarded to the opposing team. It’s a particularly apt term to describe the effect of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy.
Report lead author Prof. Julian Hinz pulls no punches:
- Using shipment-level data covering over 25 million transactions valued at nearly $4 trillion, we find near-complete pass-through of tariffs to US import prices.
- The 2025 US tariffs are an own goal: American importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost. Foreign exporters absorb only about 4 percent of the tariff burden—the remaining 96 percent is passed through to US buyers.
- US customs revenue surged by approximately $200 billion in 2025—a tax paid almost entirely by Americans.
- Trade volumes collapsed, but export prices did not fall.
“We compared Indian exports to the US with shipments to Europe and Canada and identified a clear pattern,” Hinz says. “Both export value and volume to the US dropped sharply, by up to 24 percent. But unit prices – the prices Indian exporters charged – remained unchanged. They shipped less, not cheaper.”
The tariffs act like a consumption tax on imported goods. At the same time, both the variety and volume of available products decrease, the study report explains.
My take
Perhaps the most serious result of the Tariffs saga is the revelation that millions of Americans still believe Trump’s economic lies, and still blame exporting countries for increased prices…
~ Maggie J.