It’s been a while since we brought you an update on the global Olive Oil situation. Now, there’s finally some good news on the horizon. Producers say prices are on track to drop by as much as 50 percent from their all-time high last winter within a few months…
A ancient and venerable Olive Tree: Might be 150 years old… But still producing like a champ!
The history…
Just this past March we reported that the European olive oil industry was in crisis: “According to of-ficial economic statistics, the global commodity price of Olive Oil was 50 percent higher last month than it was a year before. The price shock is the result of a massive crop failure. And some say an entire ‘culture’ is in crisis…”
That was the pinnacle of a world price spike that began with a bad crop year in 2022 and continued through 2023 following a string of droughts. Now, after the 2024 growing season, it appears relief is in sight.
Relief in sight
“The outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilize and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases,” Miguel Ángel Guzmán, Chief Sales Officer at Deoleo, told CNBC.
But Guzmán cautions, there is still ‘tension’ in the prices of certain high-end olive oil grades, such as Extra Virgin. A host of factors can still influence the prices of various oil grades over the next few months.
Nevertheless… The 2024 harvest is now more or less complete. And they’re declaring a bumper crop in both Spain and Turkey – two of the biggest producing countries.
None better to predict…
… Than Deoleo, which is one of the largest Olive Oil brokers in the world. With 650 employees buying quality oils across Europe, and selling finished products under 30 brands in 72 countries, the com-pany knows what’s going on in the market.
And Deoleo is looking forward with cautious optimism to the future:
“We understand that, after an evident drop in consumption during last two years due to high prices and with a greater availability of production compared to last two campaigns, the market [price] at origin is expected to progressively decrease during the first semester of 2025.
“The price relaxation will also depend on 25-26 crop projection and its influence on final price de-cline, with a different rate of decline in the various markets, depending on factors such as stock levels [and] competitive environment.”
In other words – it should be back to business as usual by the end of 2025. If all the cosmic tumblers fall into place as hoped…
My take
It’s gratifying to me to be able to report that the Olive Oil crisis may well have been nipped in the bud. But only Mother Nature can take any significant credit for that. And what the weather may bring over the coming growing season, only time will tell.
Personally… As a serious, committed cook, I’m relieved that my beloved Olive Oil will be ‘out of hock’ by next summer. There really is no substitute for good Olive Oil – in a whole host of applications from marinades to finishing drizzles for the finest Mediterranean dishes.
If you’ve stopped using Olie Oil because of the price, keep your eyes open as prices at the super-market fall through he first half of this coming year. And if they don’t drop – considerably – don’t be afraid to ask your supermarket manager, “Why NOT?”
~ Maggie J.