Do the latest numbers indicate a surprising trend? Or is it just a statistical ‘blip’? Data from two long-term official surveys seems to show the adult obesity rate in the US dropped by 1.6 percent between 2021 and 2023…
The numbers, from two national health authorities, appear to agree that obesity in US adults 18 and older declined by almost 2 percent over the latest two years for which comprehensive statistics are available.
Surprised everybody
The stats surprised everybody. Preceding biennial updates showed steady increases averaging just over 1 percent each over the past decade. And most medical and nutrition voices expected that trend to continue.
The ‘experts’ have been scrambling to explain the apparent drop in adult obesity rates. The idea be-ing, that if the numbers are real, and they identify the reason behind them, that knowledge can be used to wage war on the global obesity Epidemic.
A longstanding issue
“According to historical data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics,” Statista notes, “adult obesity prevalence climbed from 13 percent in 1960-1962 to 23 percent between 1988 and 1994 and first reached 30 percent in the 1999-2000 wave of the national survey.”
Many theories
Medical and nutrition experts have suggested a variety of theories to explain the sudden, unexpected decline in obesity numbers.
The easiest way to view the development is, it’s just a statistical glitch. Statisticians just hate it when something unexpected, or at out of line with their predictions, shows up.
But many folks in the obesitysphere say it’s too good a sign to dismiss so casually. And needs a closer look.
One theory more than one interest group likes is that the unexpected weight-loss benefits of sema-gultide medications such as Ozempic have demonstrated are the trigger. Since it was revealed that such drugs could be used as weight loss aids, without harmless side effects, overweight Americans have flocked to their doctors for prescriptions.
My take
It’s important to note, the figures we’re taking about today are for adults only. Children, adolescents and young adults are still showing serious increases in obesity, as distinct demographic groups.
And there are, at least at this time, no similar numbers from other countries for comparison.
But it seems plausible – just – that the ‘Ozempic’ fad could be an actual trend. And if publicised as such, with official voices behind it, might make significant inroads into the obesity epidemic. On the other hand, semaglutides are expensive, and aren’t even available to folks in many jurisdictions. So, the overall impact on the global picture remains problematic.
Not to mention, there are no long-term studies showing that semaglutide users keep off the weight they lose.
If the biennial pattern of releases on the long-term obesity trends holds, we’re just months away from another -potentially fascinating – update…
~ Maggie J.