I’ve often remarked on the difference between trends and fads – an especially sharp distinction in the foodservice sector – and I think the current Chicken Wars scenario is at or just past it’s peak. So, it’s time to look forward and speculate on the nature of the next Big Thing…
Ah, yes: The Chicken Wars. It started when Chick-Fil-A (CFA), which had theretofore been acknowledged as the cult chicken restaurant of the Deep South, was challenged by relative-upstart Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen, which launched a doppelganger Fried Chicken Sandwich up against one of CFA’s iconic menu items. The media got involved after some moderate hype from Popeye’s, and the end result was round-the-block lineups at Popeye’s outlets of fans anxious to try the new sammy.
Do you remember the mob scenes reported at some Popeye’s locations? The fist fights between rabid chicken sandwich lovers trying to get theirs before stocks ran out? Fad or trend? At that point, a mega-fad. But the response of the rest of the Fast Food sector would turn it into a trend.
What happened?
The original CFA sammy was and remains a simple – destined to become symbolic – bite: Just a breaded, deep fried chicken breast on a bun topped with pickles and mayor. Period. No big problem for Popeye’s to put our a copy-cat. But after the media uproar over the Popeye’s move, and particularly the almost unprecedented social media clamor in particular, other Fast Food organizations took notice. Their own conventional advertising, for their own flagship menu items was being submerges or at least pushed out of the awareness space of customers. If you’re McDonald’s or Burger King, how do you counter that dangerous turn?
After a brief period where the market confirmed that no amount of new burgers or other menu items would pry customers’ attention from the Chicken War, Fast Food purveyors who had theretofore given only token consideration – or none at all – started to bring our their own chicken sandwiches, in an effort to get in on the hullabaloo. And it appears that chicken sammy lovers among their existing fan bases flocked to their respective offerings. Now, as is the hallmark of a true trend, chicken sandwiches remain a central feature of most major Fast Food menus, and there’s no evidence that they’re waning in popularity.
Countervailing factors
And let’s not forget the creeping, inexorable decline in the popularity of beef. The cost continues to rise precipitously, and folks are buying less as a consequence. The economists and climatologists all agree that we must wean ourselves off of unsustainable foods such as conventionally-raised beef before mid-century if we’re to weather the coming food crisis. Clearly, products such as beef and pork, which have huge resource requirements and menacingly-large carbon footprints have no place in our future. We’re told that we’ll have to change over our dietary preferences massively to plant-based products if we’re to survive the effects of global warming. One slightly more sustainable ‘transitional’ protein is chicken.
Until recently, chicken was a significantly cheaper meat for resto operators – especially Fast Food folks, who go through millions of pieces of it a year – to work with. Alas, with the increased interest in chicken came increased demand, and chicken prices started to soar. At the same time as chicken sandwiches exploded on the market, chicken wings enjoyed a spike in popularity. Over the spring and summer of this year, there was actually a shortage of them in the U.S. which pushed their prices up sharply. So chicken is suffering the economic fate of beef. And it’s clear that chicken will not be a viable long-term replacement.
Nevertheless…
It appears that the Chicken Wars are now drawing to a peaceful end, and all participants are declaring victory. So what comes next?
The sad truth about the Fast Food biz is that there must always be something new in the pipe to keep the market in flux if all the players are to get a sufficient share of the business to survive, and pay their shareholders.
Until the exhilarating combat of the Chicken Wars, the big Fast Food brands had been experimenting with a couple of ways to keep their offerings fresh and their fans enthusiastic. One tactic they started using a few years back is the ‘limited-time menu item’.
They came up with a repertoire of ‘special’ menu items that they rotate throughout the year, hooking their fans on something and than making them wait – with bated breath – for it’s next appearance. They all do it, now. And they save their best, most popular menu items for these limited releases. But that’s just created a tug of war between different brands for the same ‘undecided’ fans.
The other tactic the big Fast Food brands have espoused is the ‘far-out ‘ menu item, just to ‘get folks to look’. Some of them have floated multi-patty burgers which no one would ever consider eating except for the novelty factor. Back in 2020, McDonald’s it offered a 4-patty Double Big Mac (see photo, top of page). Just for the heck of of it; because they could. Just to get your attention. And McDonald’s China offered a Lunar New Years SPAMburger.
Pizza Hut got so carried away with the notion of their pioneering stuffed crust pizza that it actually sold a Nothing But Stuffed Crust ring of cheese-stuffed crust with no pizza in the middle. (See featured photo above.)
This week, Panera Bread announced a new Classic Chicken Sandwich, and a spicy Buffalo Chicken version, both with – brace yourself – Anchovy Aioli.
The list goes on and on. All for a limited time, of course.
So… What’s next?
But none of the major players has come up with anything truly new or original or potentially iconic which might become the next real, palpable, industry-shaking trend.
What’s your guess? Muse on that…
~ Maggie J.