We’ve been talking a lot in the past couple of years about the eventual demise of Beef as a staple protein in western society. It’s become clear that beef production is no longer a sustainable business model. The proof is in the rising prices. Chicken and pork are also down. But plant-based competitors are up…
“We’re slowly reaching the spook zone at the meat counter,” Sylvain Charlebois, director of the AFAL, told Global News. “In fact, we’re starting to see numbers that suggest that Canadians are absolutely walking away from the meat counter.”
Prices up sharply
Sharp price rises are certainly one factor in meat sales declines. Chicken prices rose the least (between 1 and 2 percent) over the period audited, but pork as up by about 5 percent and beef skyrocketed 9 to 10 percent depending on the cut.
Weather also a factor
Drought is playing havoc with all aspects of agriculture in the Canadian West.
“The last 12 weeks for livestock has been a bit of a disaster,” Charlebois says. “The numbers are all in the red.”
Charlebois says beef producers can be expected to cull their herds through the fall, creating shortages and sending prices even higher. Some supermarket meat department managers are already cutting back beef orders in anticipation of further sales declines. Restaurant operators are watching the situation closely, with menu changes (de-emphasizing beef) and raising the prices of remaining beef items in their back pockets.
A replay of 2014?
The last time we saw out of control beef price increases was 2014, when beef prices shot up by 25 percent in one month. Consumers ran away from the beef counter, but trickled back a few months later, after prices moderated again. Charlebois isn’t so sure they’ll come back this time:
“With the competition now being around, and more vegetable protein products are actually coming into the market right now in Canada, it’s a really dangerous scenario for the livestock industry.”
His parting advice? “If you like beef, buy it now.”
~ Maggie J.