High Food Prices - © bbq4dummies.com

Food Prices: To Rise Two To Four Percent in 2020

The annual bad news on food prices came down earlier this week, and it appears that the average Canadian family is in for an annual increase of almost (C)$500 overall if they don’t change their buying and consuming habits. I guess it’s inevitable, but I still don’t like it one bit…

Spin on Food Prices - © caglecartoons.comNot funny anymore…

You’d think that, with all the advances that modern weather forecasting and crop management technology, and the staggering advances being made in the efficiency of farm equipment and practices, that the price of food should be tumbling as supplies soar. Not so. In fact the average 2 to 4 percent increase forecast for 2020 by the University of Guelph and Dalhousie University’s annual Canada’s Food Price Report outstrip this year’s 1.5 to 3.5 percent. Why this should be, I cannot say. And that’s a subject for another post on another day, anyway. But we do have the following specific predictions from the 2020 Report to cogitate upon:

  • The average total expenditure on food for next year for the average family is estimated at (C)$12,667.
  • Bread will be the only core ‘staple’ food that does not show a rise in its rate of price increase at about 2 percent. But I suspect that’s at least partly the result of extreme heat that was put on the major commercial bakeries and supermarket chains over price fixing in the past year and a half. I susp0ect they’re trying to maintain a low profile to avoid further scrutiny.
  • Meat is expected to rise 4 to 6 per cent.
  • Seafood and Vegetables are expected to rise 2 to 4 per cent.
  • Fruit is expected to rise by 1.5 to 3.5 per cent.
  • Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are expected to have below-average food inflation rates, while Quebec, P.E.I., Manitoba and British Columbia will experience higher than average food inflation rates.

Influential factors

The 2020 report cites increasingly unreliable environmental conditions (due to climate change) as a major factor in food price increases. Crop yields have become unpredictable and, in some cases, lower than they were ten or twenty years ago. That effects not only produce and grain prices, but meat prices as well, since farmers must grow or buy feed for their livestock. And the warming of our oceans is affecting all types of Fish and Seafood negatively.

The new Canada’s Food Guide, released earlier this year, places less emphasis on proteins and increases its focus on grains and produce. That might have resulted lower Meat prices as supply overtook demand, but the demand for Canadian meat exports abroad is increasing, and that is pushing domestic prices up, as well.

A less visible cause of food cost increases is the continued increase of prepared, pre-packaged and processed foods. All these products are ‘value-added’ purchases; their retail prices reflect price increases due to the cost of processing and packaging.

My take

Based on the Millennials’ (and, now, their kids’) penchant for convenience and their demand for access to any kind of food they could imagine at their fingertips, it’s no surprise that the cost of simply bringing in and displaying food has increased. At the same time, we’re not making major inroads on stemming the waste of perfectly good, nutritious food which takes place at all stages of the production and consumption chain. Add in the conditions enumerated above and you have a rather bleak picture of the food supply situation.

One thing that the 2020 Report does not mention is, even though Vegetable Protein Meat substitutes are booming as an industry, and consumers are responding fairly positively to them, they still cost 25 to 30 percent or more than traditional Meat. No matter how good they are, Veggie Substitutes won’t ‘catch on’ with me until they cost at least 25 percent less than traditional Meat.

Underlying every meal and recipe in my repertoire, there remains the spectre of soaring Produce and Fruit Prices. Fruit, not so much in 2020, according to the Report. But Veggies will lead the price increase parade once again. So much for eating healthier…

~ Maggie J.